Tigray Defense Forces has launched operation “Allula” beginning from June 18/19 and within less than ten days they have liberated dozens of cities in the east, north and Southern Tigray. On June 26, 2021, suddenly TDF is seen surrounding the city of Mekelly from three directions which were north, west, and south. From here onwards things happen very quickly as suddenly ENDF, Afworki and Amhara militias found themselves surrounded from three sides. Without even firing one shot they were forced to flee from Mekelly the capital of the now defato state of Tigray. The mastermind of the textbook Tigrayan operation that overwhelmed the armies of two dictators Abiy Ahmed and Amhara militias [e1] was General Tsadkan who was a veteran TPLF general who was one of the founding members of the original TPLF who have marched into Addis Ababa and toppled brutal Marxist Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991. Within 30 years General Tsadkan Gebretensae masterminded the defeat the second defeat of multiple forces of Ethiopian/Eritrean and Amhara militia. The war on Tigray by the Ethiopian imperial forces is an anti-colonial liberation war where a declining imperial project now lacking its traditional backers in the west is again trying to reassert itself in a changing Ethiopia, where all nationalities or ethnic groups will no longer accept to be dominated by the traditional Ethiopian colonizers-the Amhara.
In two weeks of fierce fighting from June 18 to June 28 the TDF ignobly defeated the Ethiopian army, with a decisiveness and lightning speed that surprised even military experts and historians. Driven by a fierce determination to free its land from the brutalities of thuggish and undisciplined militias masquerading as armies, who ravaged and ransacked cities, looted medical facilities, factories, private businesses, private homes and burned farms the TDF has defeated multiple armies. The war on Tigray was unlike any war where warring armies observe and respect international law and the Geneva convention for protecting occupied populations. In this war Ethiopian/Eritrean and Amhara militias have committed horrendous atrocities and crimes against humanity. The TDF are a well-disciplined army led by veterans with superior military skills, and now armed with its enemies’ weapons. The TDF has inflicted irreparable losses on the so-called Ethiopian National Defense Force, Afworkies undisciplined, criminal militias, and the cowardly Amhara regional militia, who whenever engage the TDF resort to fleeing instead of fighting. The Tigrayan resistance captured or put out of action more than half of the Ethiopian army’s combat capabilities. To lessen their loses, Afworki’s militia the so-called Eritrean army was forced to hastily withdraw from all the northern Tigrayan cities of Adigrat, Shire, Axum, and Adwa and Sheraro. Clearly the regional militia of Amhara that overran western and southern Tigray may well flee rather than fight. The swift defeat of the Ethiopian forces was a stunning reversal in a civil war that has led to the displacement of more than two million people in the Tigray region, triggered widespread hunger, and their reports from reliable sources that civilians were subjected to atrocities and sexual violence. The lighting speed of the Tigryan offensive that started in June 18 have surprised a lot of military experts and historians. The text tactics used by the TDF will be studies in military academics around the world in many years to come. The rapid success of TDF is attributed to several things moral, superior tactics, strategy, and momentum. The swift decisive defeat of the Ethiopian forces appears to be an unbelievable reversal of Abiye, and Afworke’s aggression against Tigray. The dual dictators of Ethiopia and Eritrea planned to strangle and destroy the people of Tigray, but both were defeated in less than 8 months. On July 13, 2021, TDF has again routed the Ethiopian army and the Amhara regional militias from a whole region called Raya. ENDF and Amhara regional forces have been decimated and left behind all their military hardware and equipment.
There are three major scenarios that may emerge from the currently prevailing situation in Ethiopia:
Scenario 1: Ethiopia may collapse and split into several independent states such as Tigray, Oromo, Amhara and others. The Amhara state is currently the only regionally state that wants a unified Ethiopia because they were the ones who historically benefited from the Ethiopian empire because colonized and subjugated all other ethnic groups in Ethiopia, but this time if they survive this war they may have no no choice but also to declare independence if Tigray and Oromo states become independent states, and to be followed by others. I personally believe scenario one is the most likely one.
Scenario 2: All Ethiopian functions coming together and creating a new democratic country comprised of all Ethiopian ethnic groups, holding free and fair elections different than Abiye’s sham election that did not happen in many parts of Ethiopia, where most opposition parties boycotted, and the election commission were all Abiye’s appointees with no sense of independence.
Scenario 3: A weakened Ethiopia still led by controversial and political naïve figure Abye Ahmed operating under the guidance of Afworki Eritrea’s for life dictator that is embroiled in several insurgencies in different parts of Ethiopia. This desperate and weakened Ethiopia may perpetrate atrocities, and mass killings in different parts of Ethiopia. This Ethiopia will be prune to an eventual collapse whereby the country will split into different nations anyway.
Soleiman Egeh is a freelance writer, Horn of Africa Political Analyst and a senior science instructor